Housing Market Forecast: A Comprehensive Analysis of Q4 2024
One of the best things you can do to make smart real estate decisions is to understand the housing market forecast. As 2024 came to a close, the Manhattan real estate market showed remarkable resilience and signs of recovery, offering both challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers. Here's an in-depth look at the numbers, what they mean, and my insights on the best strategies to navigate this dynamic market.
The data we’re sharing comes straight from the latest Manhattan Market Report from Corcoran, providing a comprehensive view of sales, prices, inventory, and market trends.
To make this information as accessible as possible, I’m breaking down the figures in simple, everyday terms. Instead of drowning in complex jargon or industry lingo, I’ll explain what these numbers mean for you — whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply keep tabs on the market. From understanding the shift in inventory levels to what falling prices per square foot really mean, my goal is to empower you with clear insights so you can make smart, informed real estate decisions.
Key Figures for Buyers and Sellers
The numbers show that the market is starting to even out after months of falling prices, with more buyers eager to make a move, even though there are fewer homes available for sale.
Contracts Signed: 2,904, up 22% year-over-year—a significant indicator of buyer confidence and market momentum.
Median Price: $1.1M, a 4% annual drop, marking the lowest fourth-quarter figure in five years.
Average Price per Square Foot (PPSF): $1,811, down 2%, reflecting improved value opportunities.
Inventory: Down 8% year-over-year to 5,900 listings, the lowest fourth-quarter level since 2016.
Days on Market: 116, down slightly, showcasing quicker turnover times.
What does this mean for you?
For Buyers:
Prices are still soft, offering opportunities for value-driven purchases. The median price is down, and discounts in price-per-square-foot indicate you might snag a deal, especially in smaller units or less prime locations.
What Should Buyers Do?
Act Quickly: With inventory levels at historic lows, the best properties won't stay available for long. Be prepared with financing and act decisively when you find the right property.
Focus on Value: Median prices are still soft, but not for long. Target properties under $1,800 PPSF, as demand is growing in this segment.
Leverage a Buyer’s Agent: Having an expert on your side ensures you navigate this competitive market strategically.
For Sellers:
While prices are lower, the surge in contract activity means buyers are actively looking, and inventory levels are tight. This is great news for sellers who price their homes competitively. Quicker days on market suggest the potential for smoother transactions.
What Should Sellers Do?
Price Competitively: While buyers are returning, they’re still value-focused. Pricing your home just below market value could result in multiple offers and a quicker sale.
Highlight Unique Features: With fewer new developments entering the market, showcasing your property’s unique amenities or design can attract discerning buyers.
Be Ready to Negotiate: Buyers are savvy and may expect concessions. Be flexible to secure a sale in this competitive but improving market.
Neighborhood Spotlights
Downtown Manhattan: Median price declined by 2% to $1.55M, but the average PPSF rose 12%, signaling demand for high-end units.
West Side: Inventory dropped 13%, and days on market are the lowest in Manhattan, making this a strong sellers’ market.
Financial District & Battery Park City: Sales fell 21%, but median prices rose 11% due to an increase in larger unit sales.
My Professional RECOMMENDATION
This quarter’s data suggests the Manhattan real estate market is finding its footing. For buyers, this is the window to secure properties at relatively lower prices before a full rebound. For sellers, the uptick in activity and low inventory levels create an excellent opportunity to sell efficiently—provided properties are priced and marketed strategically.
Let’s Get Started
The Manhattan market is complex, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. Whether you're buying your dream home or selling your property for maximum value, I'm here to guide you every step of the way.
Download my free Buyer’s guide to navigate NYC Real Estate like a pro. Or contact me today to schedule a free consultation and take the first step toward making your real estate goals a reality. Let’s make 2025 your year of real estate success!
